Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
